International concerns about potential global warming are currently being addressed by a protocol signed at Kyoto in 1997. If this agreement is ratified > and we have every assurance it will be > all involved in agriculture will be affected. Farmers might benefit if agricultural soils are included as carbon sinks under the Kyoto protocol. If we use cropping systems that increase soil organic matter, we could be rewarded > which would be a new 'value-added' activity for farmers.

There are two important facets to Kyoto. First, there is increasing evidence that human activities are causing CO₂ levels in the atmosphere to increase. Second, the targets for reduction can be enforced with trade sanctions to ensure compliance. Kyoto is Rio revisited, but this time with teeth.

Kyoto intends to reduce emissions produced by burning fossil fuels, and by using yet-to-be-invented technologies, replace those fuels with alternative energy sources. Such substitutions might stabilize the CO₂ level at about ppmv by 2095. Atmospheric CO₂ levels would double, our hope that we will suffer no serious impacts may be wishful thinking.

Soils as Carbon Sinks

Agricultural soils are not currently included as carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol, but forests are. Canada has taken a leading role in adding agricultural soils. A special IPCC is looking to see if there are ways to accurately measure, monitor and verify C levels.

Through photosynthesis, plants turn atmospheric CO₂ into seeds, roots, leaves and stems. Part of that CO₂ will be retained and stored in a carbon 'sink' in the soil. Each plant becomes a biological scrubber for CO₂. "Best Management Techniques" ¾ proper fertilizer application, reduced tillage, permanent cover and intensive pasture management ¾ can raise the levels of organic matter (and therefore, carbon) in soils.

If agricultural soils are included as carbon sinks under Kyoto, our activities to increase the storage of carbon in our soils ¾ sequestration ¾ could become a value-added activity.

How much is enough?

Canada has committed to reduce emissions to 6% below 1990 levels. Since CO₂ emissions have risen since then, we now have to reduce emissions by 21% or 130 million tonnes from the "Business as Usual" projections. We could park all the cars, buses, trucks, trains and airplanes in the country for one year, or stop heating all buildings in the country for four years. Alternatively, prairie agricultural soils could contribute nearly 25% of the reductions required.

Since breaking, prairie soils have lost 1 billion tonnes of carbon (3.7 billion tonnes of CO₂). Some loss is due to tillage; some has been exported in grains and livestock. With conservation tillage, we can increase carbon levels in the soil, and remove greenhouse gases from the air in the process. Table 1 indicates the relative contribution that different "Best Management Techniques" could contribute to carbon sequestration in soils.

What's the value of soil carbon?

The estimated value of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere ranges from less than a dollar a tonne to as much as $400 a tonne. Since CO₂ emissions trading is still in its infancy, there is tremendous uncertainty about its value.

CO₂ offsets have traded between $1.00 and $55.00 per tonne, in at least four markets that broker the trade. To date, I've only seen two forest sinks trade B, one at $15 and the other at $5 per tonne. To my knowledge, no soils carbon offsets have traded, but several are rumored. This would be a highly speculative market, as agricultural soils are not currently accepted as sinks in the Kyoto agreement.

CO₂ not the only bad gas

There are other greenhouse gases that have serious implications for agriculture. Methane and nitrous oxide are both very potent greenhouse gases. Methane has more than 20 times, and nitrous oxide more than 300 times the warming potential of CO₂. It wouldn't take much N₂O to eliminate any gain made by sequestering a tonne of CO₂. Fertilizer placement, timing and management all have tremendous impacts on N₂O emission. Livestock produce more than half the methane emitted in Canada, and municipal dumps emit an equal amount.

In conclusion, there are a wide variety of uncertainties surrounding greenhouse gases and agriculture. In my view, Kyoto ¾ or the son or daughter of Kyoto ¾ will definitely affect agriculture. CO₂ sequestration may well be a value-added opportunity for us. As an agricultural community, we should be actively support the potential of soils as carbon sinks, as well as the ownership of these sinks by the farmers who manage them.

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